Iceman's Euro 2008 picks

[Icemantbi]

Alright folks, the time all of us soccer fanatics have been waiting for has arrived. I’ll keep all my picks in this thread for ease of reference. Going to be playing a few futures, and of course, more than a few games. This is an exciting time to be a soccer fan and to make a few bucks, as I feel this tourney can be profitable. So let’s get to it.


<o> </o>OUTRIGHT WINNER

<o> </o>Alright, let’s start by deduction. Here’s the teams that have no chance whatsoever of taking the cup: <st1:country-region w:st="on">Austria</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Switzerland</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Poland</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Romania</st1:country-region> and <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Turkey</st1:country-region></st1lace>. These guys don’t have a chance in hell. Slim chance of winning: <st1:country-region w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region>, <st1lacename w:st="on">Czech</st1lacename> <st1lacetype w:st="on">Republic</st1lacetype>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Greece</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Sweden</st1lace></st1:country-region>. I don’t see any of these teams winning, although a couple could surprise and go far. Lightning won’t strike twice for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Greece</st1lace></st1:country-region>, Czechs and Swedes are on the decline. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Russia</st1lace></st1:country-region>, I just don’t see it. That leaves us with: <st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Italy</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">France</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Croatia</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Spain</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Netherlands</st1lace></st1:country-region>. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">France</st1lace></st1:country-region>, I don’t see it. They struggled a bit in qualification, they are getting older, no Zidane any more to shore up the midfield. Croatia could be this years Greece, the Croats always play hard and with pride, although they lack the skill they used to have in years past, so it will be tough. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Netherlands</st1lace></st1:country-region> is interesting and will depend on how Van Nistelrooy will play. There was plenty of animosity between him and the coach, so we will see. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region> is similar to <st1:country-region w:st="on">Netherlands</st1:country-region>, in that most of the pressure is on Cristiano Ronaldo to excel, but he has choked in the past for <st1:country-region w:st="on">Portugal</st1:country-region>, but if he plays like he did all year for Manchester United, no question <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Portugal</st1lace></st1:country-region> can win this thing. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Spain</st1lace></st1:country-region> has a good team on paper, but for some odd reason, they have always choked on the national stage. They have been underachievers for so long, I always have a tough time believing they get it done. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Italy</st1lace></st1:country-region> is the world champs, but they have struggled immensely in the Euros for some odd reason, but you can never count them out. And <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region></st1lace> is stacked with talent and have tons of depth, not to mention an easy group as well, they are the favourite for a reason. So I will play:
<o></o>
<st1:country-region style="font-weight: bold;" w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Portugal</st1lace></st1:country-region> +760 (1 unit)
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Italy</st1lace></st1:country-region> +680 (1 unit, a bit of a homer play, they are my team)
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Croatia</st1lace></st1:country-region> +1500 (0.5 unit)
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Germany</st1lace></st1:country-region> +400 (1 unit)

 

[Icemantbi]

GROUP WINNERS

Group A: <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Portugal</st1lace></st1:country-region> +124 (1 unit)

I really don’t see anyone but <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Portugal</st1lace></st1:country-region> topping this group. Tukey and the Swiss, no chance. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1lacename w:st="on">Czech</st1lacename> <st1lacetype w:st="on">Republic</st1lacetype></st1lace> has an outside chance if the Portugese choke (which they can) I’m going light on this one though.


<o></o>Group B: <st1:country-region style="font-weight: bold;" w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Germany</st1lace></st1:country-region> -160 (7 units)

There is no easier play in Euro 2008 than this one. We have a group that includes <st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Croatia</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Poland</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Austria</st1lace></st1:country-region>. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Germany</st1:country-region> will beat <st1:country-region w:st="on">Austria</st1:country-region> for sure, should have no problems beating <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Poland</st1lace></st1:country-region>. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Croatia</st1lace></st1:country-region> might give them a run, but I see no less than a draw. That equals group winner. This one is EASY folks! Pound it!


Group C: NO BET

<o></o>The Group of Death, any team (apart from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Romania</st1lace></st1:country-region>) can win this group.

Group D: <st1:country-region style="font-weight: bold;" w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Spain</st1lace></st1:country-region> -124 (1 unit)

I worry about <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Spain</st1lace></st1:country-region> because they are constantly underachieving in these tourneys. However, you got to believe <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Spain</st1lace></st1:country-region> takes this group. But they worry me. Small bet here.

 

[Icemantbi]

GOAL SCORER PROPS

<o></o>
I’ll do a few Props here too:


C. Ronaldo over 2.5 goals, -102 (1 unit)

This is <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Portugal</st1lace></st1:country-region>’s main threat. For them to be successful, Ronaldo will have to put the ball in the back of the net. We know he can do it at the club level(scored the most goals this year with Man United), but can he do it at the National level? I think he can. Forget the last tournaments (WC 2006 and Euro 2004) he was just a kid then. He has the experience now and the confidence of Scolari. If the Portugese go deep (and I think they can) this will sail over 2.5 goals.


M. Klose over 2.5 goals, -110 (1 unit)

<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Germany</st1lace></st1:country-region> has a lot of offensive threats, but Klose is the main one. I see <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Germany</st1lace></st1:country-region> going deep in this tourney, so that means Klose will be playing in a lot of games. That means a lot of chances for Klose to put it in the net. Should get at least 3 here.


Total Goals by country prop

<o></o>
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Austria</st1lace></st1:country-region> under 2.5, -125 (2 units)

<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Austria</st1lace></st1:country-region> is going to have a real tough time scoring goals in this tourney. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Austria</st1lace></st1:country-region> doesn’t have any offensive firepower. This is a low total, but I really don’t see them scoring 3 goals in this tourney. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Germany</st1lace></st1:country-region> for sure will shut them out. They might get 1 or 2 goals in the other games against <st1:country-region w:st="on">Croatia</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Poland</st1lace></st1:country-region>. But even that’s stretching it.

Don't want to stretch my $$$ to much on futures, so that's it for me. Of course, I'll post my individual game plays too.

 

[joeyfitzclick]

LOVE that Austria under bet.

 

[Icemantbi]

Record: 0-0, +0 units

Alright, future bets are in, now to the games:

Czechs/Swiss UNDER 2, -114 (2 units)

No Rosicky in midfield really hurts for Czechs, as they lose his creativity. The Czechs main threats are Koller and Baros, but they had dissapointing seasons this year at the club level. The Swiss will be playing defensively in this one I am sure, and they will be tough to crack. I can't see many goals in this game at all, as both teams will also play cautiously. I think at most we see a 1-1 game today.

 

[Icemantbi]

Sorry, no time for write up. for the next game I'm taking

Portugal -0.5, -125 (2 units)

 

[Icemantbi]

Record: 2-0, +4 units

A perfect start to the tourney, everything went as expected today. Let's keep the hot start going.

Croatia -0.5, -118 (2 units)

How bad is Austria? Considering that a poll conducted in Austria prior to the tourney beginning showed that a majority wanted Austria to bow out of the tournament to avoid embarassment is all that needs to be said. I can't see Austria winning here against a team that knows they have to win this one to aid their chances to go through to the KO stages. No Eduardo Da Silva hurts Croatia, but they are more than capable of beating the weakest team in the tournament in Austria.

Still looking at the later game between Germany and Poland.

 

[averick]

Congrats on yr nice start, hope yr props come in too!

 

[Icemantbi]

Record: 4-0, +8 units

A perfect record so far! I actually had Germany -1 yesterday, but couldn't post as the RX was down. Let's hope the good start continues:

France/Romania under 2, -117 (2 units)

I see another low scoring game here. Romania will play a defensive game today and France has had a ton of problems against teams that doesn't allow many chances. I don't think we will see many goals in this one.

 

[Icemantbi]

Next game:

Italy pk, -130 (2 units)

I feel this is the safest pick in this game. Liked the under originally, but I can see this game going over as well, so that is a no play. The Dutch are without Robben, and that is a huge blow. Also, the Dutch had problems scoring during qualifiers and their defence is not the best. This is Euro, so anything can happen, but I just don't see Italy losing, but there is a possibility of a draw so I'll take them at a pk.

 

[Icemantbi]

2nd half play:

Italy/Holland OVER 1, -121 (2 units)

More goals to come in this one.

 

[caseymcgillis]

yeah i took the over 1 as well. best result would be a 2 - 2 tie

 

[CAP-IT-OFF]

How about taking Italy PK -162 for the second half? Is this a better play then over 1 goal in the second half?

I don't see Italy going down 3-0 in this game.

 

[CAP-IT-OFF]

I guess it is 3-0 now. Congrats to those that took over -1 in the second half cause so far it is a push. Unlucky for me who took Italy pk for second half.

 

[Icemantbi]

First loss of the tournament. The 2nd half bet was a push, so I finish the day 1-1-1, lost a bit of juice that's all.

 

[Icemantbi]

Record: 5-1-1, +7.4 units

Had my first losing day yesterday, losing a bit of juice on the damned Italy game. Still, can't complain about a 5-1 start. Let's hope we come out positive today:

Spain -0.5, -1, -119 (2 units)

Like with Germany, -155 is a bit too much juice, so I'll risk pushing half of my bet. I've heard people say Russia might get something out of this game like Holland did against Italy, but this isn't Holland here, this is Russia. Very little experience playing in a tourney like this. Biggest problem for Russia is the loss of Arashavin and Pogrebnyak. There goes there scoring right there. Russia will play a very defensive minded game and hope to get something on the counterattack. For Russia to get something out of this game, they will have to really shine on defence, but I don't think they have the horses. What Russia does have is a good coach and a good goalie, but I don't think that will be enough against a spain team stacked with firepower in Torres, Villa and Xavi.

 

[Icemantbi]

Adding this now, because the line is moving up:

Sweden/Greece under 2, -136 (2 units)

Another low scoring game in this one I think. Greece plays a very boring, defensive minded game. Ibrahimovich has never excelled at these tourneys, and Larsson is old and definitely past his prime. Sweden is a team on the decline right now and I believe may have some difficulties finding the back of the net. They struggled in the qualifiers and I just don't know if they can turn this around. In any event, I wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be a replica of the France/Romania game yesterday, which was a total snorefest, therefore I feel the under is the best bet here.

 

[Icemantbi]

Record: 6-1-2, +9.4 units

Today's picks:

Portugal -0.5 (2 units)

The Czechs didn't impress me one bit in their first game against the Swiss. In fact, the Swiss outplayed them for the most part in that game. Meanwhile, Portugal was impressive against Turkey. I see another win for Portugal in this one, and if they win, they should clinch the group.

 

[Soprano]

Like it!!! GL!!!

 

[dbol]

oops